Thanks for visiting this website for my book, The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. Let me tell you a bit about what you can learn and do here.
Decision making is one of the last frontiers barely touched by science in day-to-day use. The Predictioneer’s Game was written to help change that. Don’t get me wrong, I am all for wisdom and “street smarts.” But it is awfully hard to know who is wise and who has great intuition before decisions have to be made. It is much more helpful to have a proven method to connect the dots correctly beforehand. That is true whether addressing everyday life, business choices, or the biggest national security questions. The Predictioneer’s Game is about learning to come up with reliable predictions to foresee and even engineer the future.
This website introduces you to my book and to what some notable people are saying about it. But it does much more. Go to the Author page to learn who I am, what I do, and to find links to other books and articles I have written. You can also listen to online interviews in which I made predictions. These are all dated so you can form your own view of whether my game theory method — a way of evaluating how people interact when they are trying to advance their own interests — leads to reliable predictions. You will notice too that the method is used to forecast some of the most important events and trends of our time. That’s where the real power and fun lies — in working out where things are headed even before the decision makers know what they will do or how things will turn out.
Next, check out the Game page. There you can analyze questions of interest to you by playing the Predictioneer’s Game. Curious about what Congress will do on health care or on immigration policy or tax policy? Curious about what kind of peace deal can be reached between the Palestinians and Israelis or which way Cuba is likely to be headed in the next few years? Are you interested in how Wall Street will be regulated in the future or whether Turkey will join the European Union or who will replace Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, down the road? Wondering what strategic changes will be adopted by General Motors or Toyota? All of these questions and infinitely more are good subjects for the Predictioneer’s Game. If you examine these or other issues of broad interest, please post the output from the game on this website so others can see what you and the Predictioneer’s Game came up with. Of course, garbage in means garbage out so please follow the instructions manual carefully when constructing the inputs needed to make forecasts. Have questions? Go to the blog page. I will answer questions of general interest or concern as regularly as I can.
Have fun! That, and appreciating that science can and should replace crystal ball gazing and seat-of-the-pants guesstimates is what this is all about.
Want to buy The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future? Just click on one of the handy links to a bookseller site.
Thank You for visiting.