http://www.predictioneersgame.com Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future Thu, 17 Feb 2011 14:58:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 http://www.predictioneersgame.com/excerpts/comment-page-1#comment-3631 Really Long Post, New Format Next Week « onthevillagegreen Wed, 29 Dec 2010 21:14:06 +0000 http://www.predictioneersgame.com/?page_id=23#comment-3631 [...] Americans spend a great deal of money on their military, and the Times offered areas of the military where cuts could be made: reducing the number of active troops abroad in Iraq and Afghanistan, reducing the number of troops stationed in Europe, reducing the size of Air Force and Naval fleets, cutting back on weapons research, limiting benefits of non-injured veterans, and limiting pay of soldiers not on active duty. All of these are appealing to the more peacefully-minded or cost-conscious intellectuals. I would even be okay compromising on some parts of my 13-point plan to replace them with military cutbacks. Reducing deployment levels in Iraq and Afghanistan could save $169 billion for 2030. As opposed to the war on terror that I am, I still think we need to maintain the overwhelming American military hegemony we enjoy today. Since the end of the Cold War, while there have been conflicts worldwide, we’ve mostly achieved a Pax Americana. The world needs a stabilizing leader just like any other conglomeration of people. Eventually, it will be replaced by a more representative system, but until then, we’ve proven ourselves relatively effective (compared to previous superpowers). And not since the British Empire (and the Mongol Empire before it) has there been a hyperpower with the capability to create positive change in the world. Anyway, I’m not totally willing to fight on that issue. More important is the fact that if deployment in Iraq drops below 50,000, Iraq and Iran will forge a closer friendship. Simulations show that if we can wait till about late November of 2011 (and assuming no huge catastrophes, though taking smaller ones into account), the political power in Iran will have shifted from Ayatollah Khameini to the more civically-minded Bonyads. By April of 2012, the situation will have reached an equilibrium with the Bonyads on top, the Ayatollah in the middle, and Ahmadinejad on the bottom of the power scale. Removing troops from Iraq may not have an effect on that projection, but I’d rather be safe than sorry. You can read Bueno de Mesquita’s excerpt on Iraq and Iran here. [...] [...] Americans spend a great deal of money on their military, and the Times offered areas of the military where cuts could be made: reducing the number of active troops abroad in Iraq and Afghanistan, reducing the number of troops stationed in Europe, reducing the size of Air Force and Naval fleets, cutting back on weapons research, limiting benefits of non-injured veterans, and limiting pay of soldiers not on active duty. All of these are appealing to the more peacefully-minded or cost-conscious intellectuals. I would even be okay compromising on some parts of my 13-point plan to replace them with military cutbacks. Reducing deployment levels in Iraq and Afghanistan could save $169 billion for 2030. As opposed to the war on terror that I am, I still think we need to maintain the overwhelming American military hegemony we enjoy today. Since the end of the Cold War, while there have been conflicts worldwide, we’ve mostly achieved a Pax Americana. The world needs a stabilizing leader just like any other conglomeration of people. Eventually, it will be replaced by a more representative system, but until then, we’ve proven ourselves relatively effective (compared to previous superpowers). And not since the British Empire (and the Mongol Empire before it) has there been a hyperpower with the capability to create positive change in the world. Anyway, I’m not totally willing to fight on that issue. More important is the fact that if deployment in Iraq drops below 50,000, Iraq and Iran will forge a closer friendship. Simulations show that if we can wait till about late November of 2011 (and assuming no huge catastrophes, though taking smaller ones into account), the political power in Iran will have shifted from Ayatollah Khameini to the more civically-minded Bonyads. By April of 2012, the situation will have reached an equilibrium with the Bonyads on top, the Ayatollah in the middle, and Ahmadinejad on the bottom of the power scale. Removing troops from Iraq may not have an effect on that projection, but I’d rather be safe than sorry. You can read Bueno de Mesquita’s excerpt on Iraq and Iran here. [...]

]]>