Get Mid-East Negotiations Started? How About, Continued!
Secretary of State Clinton is in the mid-east urging Israel’s government to stop the construction of further settlements and working on measures to build trust between the two sides. Israel’s Prime Minister obkjects that there should be no preconditions imposed on Israel before agreeing to start negotiations.
Give me a break: start negotiations! These tired old phrases and maneuvers have been going on forever. Negotiations start and stop every couple of years — must be seriously think that they always go back to square one. Isn’t it time for some fresh thinking instead of the same old same old?
I propose a simple step that serves the interests of both sides. Share tourist tax revenue. When there is violence, that revenue falls to a pittance. If each side policies itself, Palestinian income could rise 20 percent or more at no cost — and real gains toward peace — for the Israelis. I lay out the calculations in The Predictioneer’s Game if you want to see the details. This is a completely self-enforcing mechanism. Israel’s government might have the right self-interested incentives under this proposal to check settlements. The Palestinian leadership will likewise have the right incentive to check extremism on their side of the border. They don’t need to sit and negotiate to achieve this. Each can unilaterally declare its preparedness to put tourist tax revenue into a common pool to be distributed according to the current population distribution (about 60% Israeli and 40% Palestinian). Check out the details.
Dear Madam Secretary of State, please let’s bring some new ideas to the table. Land for peace and peace for land don’t work, won’t work, and shouldn;t be expected to work. They lack what game theorists call credible commitment. Please let’s not waste time on what we already know won’t be successful.
8 Comments Add your own
1. troyus | November 2nd, 2009 at 5:00 pm
Well said. As you said in your book, land for peace isn’t self enforcing.
I’ve put your tool to work on a couple of tasks already and I’ve gotten surprisingly good predictions from them. The most solid benefit, however, is that it forces me to really think through my decisions. For instance, we are thinking about bidding for a major contract but can’t decide whether to bid and, if so, how much. The prediction tool says we should bid high, not be too anxious to make a deal and be fairly inflexible on the price. My reading (although I’m very much an amateur) is that either we’ll lose the bid immediately as the incumbent dramatically lowers their price or the despite the lower price the incumbent won’t get the bid. Since we are the high quality, but not low price, provider the advantage will come to us. After some protracted negotiations where they try to beat us down in price we’ll get the contract with a comfortable margin (provided we don’t charge more than about 50% over the incumbent’s charge).
I happen to think this prediction makes an astonishing amount of sense given the landscape but at the very least it’s given us a solid framework to think about these negotiations without resorting to “gut feel”.
Thanks so much for your great book. I’ve also now order a few other of your books and read some of your papers. Amazing and powerful stuff!
2. Rick Rohles | November 4th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Fascinating book Bruce. I am reading it a seoond time and also trying to find a good bibliography of applied game theory sources. If we follow most of the logic described in your book than it appears that the simple solution in Palestine and the West Bank for that matter are casinos…I mean when was the last time we had an Indian uprising in the US. Same motivations, same influences, similar politico, same religious threads. I think the Grand Hilton Ramallah Casino and Resort could have the same lasting affect…..
3. admin | November 4th, 2009 at 11:04 am
Interesting thought. This is exactly the kind of new thinking we need — look back at what worked elsewhere and see how it might fit into the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Let’s hope Secretary clinton glances at this page.
4. Steve | May 28th, 2010 at 3:10 am
Fascinating book Bruce. I am reading it a seoond time and also trying to find a good bibliography of applied game theory sources. If we follow most of the logic described in your book than it appears that the simple solution in Palestine and the West Bank for that matter are casinos…I mean when was the last time we had an Indian uprising in the US. Same motivations, same influences, similar politico, same religious threads. I think the Grand Hilton Ramallah Casino and Resort could have the same lasting affect…..
5. Emily | May 31st, 2010 at 8:56 pm
Well said. As you said in your book, land for peace isn’t self enforcing.
I’ve put your tool to work on a couple of tasks already and I’ve gotten surprisingly good predictions from them. The most solid benefit, however, is that it forces me to really think through my decisions. For instance, we are thinking about bidding for a major contract but can’t decide whether to bid and, if so, how much. The prediction tool says we should bid high, not be too anxious to make a deal and be fairly inflexible on the price. My reading (although I’m very much an amateur) is that either we’ll lose the bid immediately as the incumbent dramatically lowers their price or the despite the lower price the incumbent won’t get the bid. Since we are the high quality, but not low price, provider the advantage will come to us. After some protracted negotiations where they try to beat us down in price we’ll get the contract with a comfortable margin (provided we don’t charge more than about 50% over the incumbent’s charge).
I happen to think this prediction makes an astonishing amount of sense given the landscape but at the very least it’s given us a solid framework to think about these negotiations without resorting to “gut feel”.
Thanks so much for your great book. I’ve also now order a few other of your books and read some of your papers. Amazing and powerful stuff!
6. Tiffany | June 24th, 2010 at 7:44 am
Fascinating book Bruce. I am reading it a seoond time and also trying to find a good bibliography of applied game theory sources. If we follow most of the logic described in your book than it appears that the simple solution in Palestine and the West Bank for that matter are casinos…I mean when was the last time we had an Indian uprising in the US. Same motivations, same influences, similar politico, same religious threads. I think the Grand Hilton Ramallah Casino and Resort could have the same lasting affect…..
7. Lavonne Trevino | December 24th, 2010 at 12:28 am
Fascinating book Bruce. I am reading it a seoond time and also trying to find a good bibliography of applied game theory sources. If we follow most of the logic described in your book than it appears that the simple solution in Palestine and the West Bank for that matter are casinos…I mean when was the last time we had an Indian uprising in the US. Same motivations, same influences, similar politico, same religious threads. I think the Grand Hilton Ramallah Casino and Resort could have the same lasting affect…..
8. Jean Combs | December 29th, 2010 at 2:11 am
Interesting thought. This is exactly the kind of new thinking we need — look back at what worked elsewhere and see how it might fit into the Israeli-Palestinian situation. Let’s hope Secretary clinton glances at this page.
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