Iran – An Update
Iran is much in the news so this seems like an appropriate time to bring you up to date on how I think my earlier forecast is doing and on what all the current action — missile firings, revelation of a second uranium enrichment facility, threats of greater sanctions — mean.
Back in February, I predicted that by early 2010 we would see that Iran — perhaps with concessions from the US and other international players — will develop enough weapons grade fuel to show it knows how, but that it would not go so far as to build a bomb. Let’s put that in the context of the lead international affairs story in The New York Times on September 9, 2009. Here is what the first paragraph of that story reported:
oNY Times, September 9, 2009: “American intelligence agencies have concluded in recent months that Iran has created enough nuclear fuel to make a rapid . . .sprint for a nuclear weapon. But new intelligence delivered to the White House says that the country has deliberately stopped short of the critical last steps to make a bomb.”
Sounds an awful lot like what I predicted in my TED Conference talk in early February 2009.
How does this play against recent revelations? The US and several European powers are slated to begin negotiations with Iran later this week. Iran earlier announced that it had a second uranium enrichment facility under construction and now has tested several missiles (all had been tested last year as well so there is not much new in these tests) ostensibly as part of an annual commemoration of its war with Iraq. Iran has invited UN inspectors to check out the second nuclear facility which is still under construction. President Obama revealed that he was briefed on this facility in the fall of 2008. So, while it is news to many of us, it is not news to the US, our friends, or, of course, the Iranian regime.
What are all of these activities about then? They are part of the Bargaining Ballet orchestrated to gain leverage in the upcoming negotiations. Unfortunately I haven’t analyzed these negotiations so I have no prediction on what may come out of the discussions. Maybe someone out there can try to build a reasonable data set of positions etc. going in so we can predict what is likely to happen. but for now, I view all of the recent developments as just posturing before the different domestic constituencies in Iran, the US, etc. to win political credit or shift blame. remember, all the developments of the last several days are news to us but not news to the parties to the upcoming talks. and remember what the New York Times reported on September 9th — Iran has deliberately stopped short of the critical last steps to build a bomb!
On a more sobering note, look back at my TED talk and you will see that if a deal is not struck with Iran over its nuclear program — and to me that means a deal to have a credible inspection regime that assures the international community that Iran will not take further steps toward building a nuclear weapon — in 2010 the influence of the pro-bomb interests, whle still not the winning position in 2011 in Iran, grows stronger at the expense of those who want a more moderate and pragmatic policy.
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