Comments on: Stock Market Predictions: I Wish! http://www.predictioneersgame.com/stock-market-predictions-i-wish Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future Thu, 17 Feb 2011 14:58:09 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: admin http://www.predictioneersgame.com/stock-market-predictions-i-wish/comment-page-1#comment-36 admin Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:32:11 +0000 http://www.predictioneersgame.com/?p=143#comment-36 Hi Jonathan, Thanks for the comment. I have clearly not stated my case adequately. I do not mean to suggest that markets are unpredictable in general; only that they are not predictable by my model. My model assumes more than rationality. It also assumes that it is examining a situation involving the opportunity for negotiation in the shadow of the potential threat of the use of coercion or threats. In a pure market setting this condition is not met. It is met when it comes to predicting, for instance, how regulators and regulations may influence markets because regulators often have threat-power. Each additional assumption to a model necessarily restricts the domain of things it applies to. I am coinfident that there are many clever economists and others using game theory to play markets. that just is not what my particular models are designed to do. Bruce Hi Jonathan,
Thanks for the comment. I have clearly not stated my case adequately. I do not mean to suggest that markets are unpredictable in general; only that they are not predictable by my model. My model assumes more than rationality. It also assumes that it is examining a situation involving the opportunity for negotiation in the shadow of the potential threat of the use of coercion or threats. In a pure market setting this condition is not met. It is met when it comes to predicting, for instance, how regulators and regulations may influence markets because regulators often have threat-power. Each additional assumption to a model necessarily restricts the domain of things it applies to. I am coinfident that there are many clever economists and others using game theory to play markets. that just is not what my particular models are designed to do.
Bruce

]]> By: Jonathan Sandlund http://www.predictioneersgame.com/stock-market-predictions-i-wish/comment-page-1#comment-35 Jonathan Sandlund Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:42:50 +0000 http://www.predictioneersgame.com/?p=143#comment-35 If you believe people are rational, and thus predictable, is it not fair to assume the market must be rational as well? Afterall, it is merely a function of its participants. I have to say, I disagree with the notion that people, and the market for that matter, are rational but I see a disconnect in your theory that people are predictable but markets are not... Even though we disagree, I've thoroughly enjoyed reading your material! Best, Jonathan Sandlund If you believe people are rational, and thus predictable, is it not fair to assume the market must be rational as well? Afterall, it is merely a function of its participants.

I have to say, I disagree with the notion that people, and the market for that matter, are rational but I see a disconnect in your theory that people are predictable but markets are not…

Even though we disagree, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed reading your material! Best,

Jonathan Sandlund

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